Peak Season Returns 2025

Key findings

• 25.3% of peak season orders were returned, against 31.7% of orders placed the rest of the year.
• Return rates drop the most in the UK and the Netherlands, from 37.3% to 27.1%.
• An average peak week brings 65% more orders and 33% more returns than a regular week.
• Warehouse receipts peak about three weeks after Black Week, and a second wave arrives in mid-January.
• 92% of the value returned from peak orders was back in the warehouse by the end of January 2026.

Do peak-season orders come back more often?

No. Peak orders are returned less often, but there are more of them. Orders placed during Black Week and December were 6.4 percentage points less likely to be returned than orders placed from February to August.

• All markets: 25.3% of peak orders returned vs 31.7% the rest of the year (−6.4 pts);
• Nordics: 23.7% vs 30.8% (−7.1 pts);
• UK and the Netherlands: 27.1% vs 37.3% (−10.2 pts).

Volume still rises. An average peak week brings 65% more orders, 33% more returns and 38% more returned value than a regular week. Returned value grows faster than the number of returns because a returned peak order carries more of the basket back with it.

Not every return is a lost sale. At retailers offering exchanges in Ingrid, about 7% of peak returned value was exchanged instead of refunded, the same share as the rest of the year.

When do peak-season returns reach the warehouse?

Orders peaked in Black Week (Nov 24–30, 2025) at 3.4× a regular week. Reported returns peaked one week later, Dec 1–7, at 1.75×. Warehouse receipts peaked in Dec 15–21 at 1.5×, dipped over Christmas, and rose again to 1.3× in Jan 12–18.

We assume the January wave combines post-holiday returns with parcels held up over Christmas. The data shows the wave but doesn't measure its causes.

Shoppers decide about as fast in peak as the rest of the year. The extra days come before and after that decision. Median days, peak vs the rest of the year:

• Order placed to return reported: 10.9 vs 8.7 days (+2.2);
• Order delivered to return reported: 4.3 vs 3.7 days (+0.6);
• Return reported to received at warehouse: 11.0 vs 9.0 days (+2.0).

Peak returns also have a longer tail: 6.4% of peak returned value was reported more than 30 days after the order, against 1.6% the rest of the year. A likely explanation is holiday return deadlines, since several retailers appear to have extended return windows for peak orders. That reading is our assumption and isn't confirmed against retailer settings.

By Jan 18, 2026, 76% of the value returned from peak orders was back in the warehouse, and 92% by the end of January.

When do shoppers send returns over the holidays?

Returns slow down over the holidays but never stop. Compared with the pace of a normal day, shoppers reported returns at:

• 0.55× on Christmas Eve;
• 0.8× on Christmas Day;
• 0.6× on New Year's Eve;
• 0.5× on New Year's Day, the quietest day of the holidays;
• 1.24× on Jan 2, the busiest day of the holidays.

New Year has its own rhythm. On New Year's Eve, 40% of returns were reported before noon and 9% after 6PM, against about a third after 6PM on a normal day. On New Year's Day, the typical return was reported around 4PM.

The busiest hour for returns from peak orders was Saturday 12PM–1PM, Stockholm time (CET). The rest of the year, it was Wednesday 5PM–6PM. Sunday was the calmest day in both periods.

What this means for retailers

Shoppers report returns about two weeks before the parcels reach the warehouse: reported returns peaked in Dec 1–7 and warehouse receipts in Dec 15–21. That window shows which products and sizes are on their way back while they're still in transit.

A few questions follow from the data. Is warehouse capacity planned for mid-January as well as mid-December? Would a fixed return deadline for holiday orders suit your return policy? And how much of your returned value could exchanges keep?

Methodology

• Data: anonymized Ingrid Returns and Checkout data from Fashion, Footwear and Sports and Outdoor retailers live on Ingrid Returns before December 2025.
• Periods are set by order date. Peak season: orders placed Nov 24 – Dec 31, 2025 (38 days). Rest of the year: orders placed Feb 1 – Aug 31, 2026 (212 days). Every order in both periods has had its full return window.
• Return rate: share of orders returned. Differences are in percentage points.
• Weekly comparisons: average per week, counting every return an order leads to in the week the order was placed.
• Calendar-week timing: per ISO week from W47 2025 to W10 2026, as a multiple of an average week in Feb–Aug 2026. Each line counts what happens in that week.
• Returned value: item price minus its share of the order discount, converted to SEK.
• Excluded: cancelled and deleted returns and items, and gift cards.
• Regions come from the buyer's address: Nordics (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland), UK and the Netherlands, and other markets.
• Return reported: the shopper registered the return in Ingrid. Order delivered: from Ingrid Tracking, so it covers tracked Checkout retailers only. Received at warehouse: the retailer's warehouse system confirmed the item arrived.
• Exchange share: retailers offering exchanges in Ingrid, which is nearly every retailer in the dataset.
• Times are Stockholm time, CET or CEST, winter or summer time, respectively.